GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS
Highlight
Blue carbon Project
- GHG emission reductions with total VCUs ex-ante (tonnes) of 2,500 ha for 30 years is 31.92 tonnes CO2-e.
- Creating new jobs for 2,500 families (traditional fishermen, women and youths).
- Creating new incomes from fishery products (fish, crab, shrimp, etc.), organic batik mangroves, mangrove foods and beverages and other small household business, and from mangrove eco-tourism.
- Increasing adaptation level of local communities from climate change impacts, such sea level rise, coastal abrasion, frequent flood (rob), and loosing natural resources for their daily income.
Agroforestry carbon project
- GHG emission reductions with total VCUs ex-ante (tonnes) of 3,000 ha for 30 years is 23.34 tonnes CO2-e.
- Creating new jobs for 4,000 families (small scale farmers, women and youths).
- Creating new incomes from agroforestry products (coffee, cacao etc.), fruits, handicraft and other small household business, and eco-tourism.
- Increasing adaptation level of local communities from climate change impacts, such landslide, drought, land erosion, frequent flood, and loosing natural resources for their daily income.
Problem analysis Blue carbon
Combined climate change factors, sea-level rise, land-use change, and deforestation created impacts on the fragility of coastal ecosystem, flora/fauna, and human life. This condition affected serious problems on (1) frequent floods and coastal erosion; (2) loss of natural resources supporting subsistence for local economy; (3) marginalization and displacement of coastal population, food insecurity and loss job opportunities; (4) stress over water resources (saline water intrusion into freshwater aquifers); (5) unequal redistribution of fishermen income transforming individual community lands into large scale intensive aquaculture companies; and (6) totally village lost and community settlement sink.
Agroforestry and forest conservation
The data serial analysis from Local Climate Institute showed air temperature, air humidity, precipitation, length of sun radiation and wind speed in West Java have significantly changed. Annual air temperature increases 0,010C or 0,350C during the last 35 years. Average length of sun radiation increases 0,27% yr-1 or 9,45% yr-1 during the last 35 years. Average precipitation decreases 1.85 mm per year, but the extreme rain frequently occurs during last 8 years. Average evaporation increases 0,01 Ep mm or 0,35 Ep mm during the last 30 years. In contrast, annual air humidity decreases 0,21% yr-1 and air pressure also decrease 0,01 P mbar per year.
Combined climate change factors and land-use change/deforestation) created impacts on the fragility of watershed and forest ecosystem, flora/fauna, and human life. This condition affected serious problems on: (1) frequent floods and land erosion during rainy season; (2) loss of natural resources supporting subsistence of local agriculture; (3) marginalization and displacement of population, food insecurity and loss of job opportunities; (4) stress over water resources (over capacity during rainy season and drought during dry season causing the loss of clean water for 23 million inhabitants; (5) unequal redistribution of income transforming public goods into single-use private resources – intensive open-land agriculture practices mostly for vegetables.
Project objectives
The project objective is to generate GHG emission reductions and removals through i) increased biomass from tree plantation and ii) increased soil organic carbon. The restoration and conservation of coastal-, watershed and forest ecosystem will benefit for carbon sequestration, water and soil conservation, natural disaster prevention and green livelihoods development. The project will revitalize degraded ecosystem into a carbon-livelihood multiple use landscape by improving ecosystem- and social economic resilience for vulnerable communities. The project also increases family income through sustainable Income Generating Activities (IGAs).
Reducing CO2 emissions by planting and conserving coastal species in the degraded areas would be much more effective investment, not just for maintaining natural balance but also has positive impacts for the economic development of local communities. The blue carbon project will build a Coastal Carbon Corridor that connect the carbon of true mangroves, associate mangroves, seagrass, and coral reef along the coast. The total areas of the project will perform an integrated blue carbon ecosystem. While agroforestry and forest conservation project are not only for carbon credits but also increasing ecosystem resilience, and social economic resilience for local communities. Reducing CO2 emissions by planting forest species and mixed farming system has positive impacts for soil- and water conservation, and sustainable green products. The project will also select buffer-zone villages of national parks and nature reserves that connect the agroforestry program with species and habitat conservation.
Ecosystem conservation faces numerous challenges that require comprehensive analysis and strategic solutions. This analysis involves understanding the complexities of stakeholder perspectives, policy frameworks, and ecological impacts. The diverse interests of stakeholders in forest management significantly complicate conservation efforts. Different groups, including local communities, government bodies, and non-governmental organizations, often have conflicting views on what constitutes effective forest management.
Effective policy analysis is essential for addressing conservation issues. The concept of “problem-method fit” is crucial in selecting appropriate methods for analysing forest policies, ensuring that the chosen approach aligns with the specific challenges faced in different contexts. Moreover, the implementation of programs like REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) exemplifies how emission reductions are framed as policy problems by various actors. This multi-actor approach highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of how different entities perceive and address forest management issues. Ecosystem conservation efforts often encounter practical challenges, such as inadequate funding and limited collaboration among planners.
Project sites
The blue carbon projects are conducted in the degraded coastal wetlands in Sumatra-, Java-. and Sulawesi Island – Indonesia since 2009. The geographic boundaries of the project area are defined at the beginning of project activities. The project team will provide geographic coordinates of lands (including sub-tidal mangrove ecosystem: pond, riverbank and coastline). The GIS analysis of project sites will facilitate accurate delineation of the project area. The areas are divided into coastline-, pond- and riverbank mangrove sub-ecosystems, seagrass, and coral reefs.
The agroforestry projects are currently implemented in 4 provinces of Indonesia: Banten-, West Java-, Central Java- and East Java province since 2019. The project sites are ranging from the coastal- into mountainous areas. The carbon agroforestry project will be implemented in 3 zones: the lowland zone (0 – 300 m above sea level), midland zone (300 – 900 m above sea level) and highland zone of watershed areas (900 – 2.200 m above sea level). The site condition is mostly degraded land with less than 10% plant cover.
Our current forest conservation projects are implemented in North Sumatra within support from Global Mangrove Trust (GMT) and Marex, focusing on preserving biodiversity and promoting sustainable land-use practices. In the past within support from US Fish and Wildlife Service, we built an elephant forest corridor in Aceh Besar that connect Jantho Nature Reserve and other protected areas. We also implement our agroforestry carbon projects in the buffer zone of national parks and protected areas.
There are 3 (three) steps of planting site assessment:
- Planting site identification. The GIS team will produce remotely sensed data, maps and data, land administration and tenure records and/or other official documentation that facilitates clear delineation of the project sites. The project area should have geo-referenced in digital format in accordance with IPCC rules.
- Planting site validation. All identified sites are then validated by ground check of our field team, stakeholder and community groups. Approval of planting site from landowner, social data on commitment level and members of the group are the key criteria during the validation of each parcel of project site.
- Project site verification. Once each parcel of planting sites is validated, then the GIS team will conduct more detailed analysis of from the parcel into planting plot. Each planting plot size is measured in ha and then mapped in which each plot will have a special code of unique geographical identification. During field site verification the field team will collect information on land suitability, and risks of mortality. Land readiness, species chosen, agreed density, fencing system and other supporting planting actions with priority of very low risks of mortality will also be targeted on verification process.
The land size for each ARR carbon project is 2,500 ha, and it can be extended into 10,000 ha. The projects are implemented on community lands (non-state Indonesian forests). Each phase of planting action will be implemented in 4 years, then followed up by 26 years carbon maintenance.
Project Activities
The objective will be achieved through accomplishment of outcomes and deliverable activities that include:(1) Land- and social assessment of planting sites, (2) Public engagement. (3) Education and awareness program. (4) Capacity building for local communities, (5) Nursery works and planting trees, (6) Ecosystem conservation; (7) Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV), (8) Research, (9) Social-economic supports; and (10) Project management and evaluation.
Planting trees Blue carbon
There are 3 (three) steps of planting mangroves:
- Step 1. Planting 10,000 propagules/ha on coastlines and riverbanks, or 2,500 seedlings/ha in ponds.
- Step 2. Replanting the dead trees to maintain the survival rate at 70 – 80%.
If we find the dead trees in the plot, the replanting actions can be conducted regularly and conducted after 3 months after planting.
- Step 3. Species enrichment with non-Rhizophora spp for species diversification in the plot to perform heterogenous mangrove forest.
Based on the land assessment, we will mobilize local community groups to plant:
- Rhizophora mucronata and apiculata at ponds (15 – 20%).
- Mixed Rhizophora spp and Avicennia spp, Bruguiera spp, and other true mangroves at river banks (5 – 10%).
- Mixed true mangroves (Rhizophora spp, Avicennia spp, Bruguiera spp, etc) and associated mangroves (Casuarina spp, Hibiscus tiliascius, Terminalia spp, Ficus virens, etc) at coastlines (70 – 80%).
Planting trees Agroforestry carbon
The carbon calculation will be based on the 3 planting patterns carried out in each zone. Yagasu team will mobilize local community groups to plant various agroforestry seedlings that are suitable on each planting plot. The percentage of species composition and planting pattern will depend on each planting site characteristic, risks of mortality and preference of community groups.
There are 3 (three) steps of agroforestry planting in 4 years:
- Step-1 planting the 1st layer forest- and fruit trees with density of 500 seedlings per ha, and the 2nd layer coffee plantation with density of 700 seedlings per ha. Additional species of bamboo (156 clumps/ha) will be planted in slope-, riverbank- and water spring areas. The potential mortality after 6 – 12 months in the Step-1 is 20 – 40% because the rooting system is still unstable.
- Step-2 replanting the dead trees to maintain survival rate in the stable condition (80%). Replanting the dead trees can be done by planting other species to enrich the species variation. Diversification of species will perform heterogenous agroforestry. After 4 years, the planted trees usually will be much better survived and in more stable growth.
- Step-3 replacing the problem plot with a new plot if there is very high mortality or is a plot gone because of land-use change into other purposes.
We will provide around 5 – 10% (125 – 250 ha) from total project size as additional planting plots to anticipate if there are any land conversion into other purposes or totally the dead trees in the plot can’t be replanted. Therefore, at the time of validation and verification, the total planting plots can be consistently meet the target.
Our team will mobilize local community groups to plant various agroforestry seedlings that are suitable on each planting plot. The percentage of species composition and planting pattern will depend on each planting site characteristic, risks of mortality and preference of community groups. The balance of planting system in each zone will be an ideal for carbon storage and accommodate the farmers for commercial cash crops. The species composition will be adjusted if there are any specific locations need special treatment for soil and water conservation,
Replanting the dead trees
We mobilize local communities to conduct replanting actions in the plots where have a significant mortality rate. After replanting the survival rate of each plot will be maintained into 70 – 80%. Diversification of species will also be conducted in planting sites to perform heterogenous agroforestry forests.
Carbon targets
Blue carbon
The average CO2 removal in 20 – 40 years carbon credits:
PROGRAM DURATION
20 years carbon period
30 years carbon period
40 years carbon period
D30 allometry
Average CO2e removal of mangrove ecosystem
(tCO2e ha-1 yr-1)
38.09
31.92
39.53
D302H allometry
Average CO2e removal of mangrove ecosystem
(tCO2e ha-1 yr-1)
45.40
48.89
50.07
Carbon sequestration calculation is based on carbon accounting of vegetation carbon + SOC of mix species in 3 sub-ecosystems (pond, riverbank and coastline). The reference of SOC estimation (6,62 tCO2-e per ha-1 yr-1) is based on the Yagasu research publication (Suprayogi et al., 2022). An additional CO2 removal from associate mangrove restoration, mangrove conservation, and seagrass meadow and coral reef conservation will be included later.
Agroforestry carbon
The average CO2 removal in 20 – 30 years carbon credits:
PROGRAM DURATION
20 years carbon period
25 years carbon period
30 years carbon period
Average CO2e removal of lower-stream
(tCO2e ha-1 yr-1)
21,27
21,48
23.34
Average CO2e removal of middle-stream
(tCO2e ha-1 yr-1)
22,77
22,98
32,27
Average CO2e removal of low-upper-stream
(tCO2e ha-1 yr-1)
27,59
27,24
34,05
In term of carbon calculation, the proposed project is a grouped project based on similar biomass accumulation rates of various horticultural tree species and shrubs. The planting system will be grouped within special attention to the similar carbon growth characteristics and planting densities.
The planting system proposed for Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation project is carried out in three layers: 1st layer – for land-erosion prevention and water conservation, 2nd layer – cash crops producing commercial commodities and ground cover plantation – land surface shrubs – for soil protection and commercial purposes. Various bamboo species and palm sugar trees will be planted in very slope areas or used as a border between community lands. The carbon of each tree layer will be counted and estimated using existing reference allometric. The project activity will be monitored based on 3-year project roll out of tree carbon growth period.
Based on our research in the project sites of West Java, the project in 3 zones will sequester vegetation carbon with conservative value of 30.70 – 34.05 tCO2-e ha-1 yr-1 for 30 years carbon calculation. This carbon is calculated based on average density of 300 – 350 trees/ha at the age of 30 years. Based on several reference, the understorey carbon is around 3 – 5% of mature agroforestry trees.
The carbon estimation is based on the medium level of land fertile in all zones. However, the land in West Java is mostly high fertile and local climate is more compromised for faster tree growth. It means we can get more carbon when the real data collection during the validation and verification come to the field. Based on the Non-permanence Risk Assessment of this project, 10 – 15% buffer credits are to be deposited in the AFOLU pooled buffer account.
Mangrove forest conservation
Supported by MAREX, Yagasu and GMT organises mangrove conservation project using the space-based machine learning Kumi Analytics Carbon Sequestration Assessment Tool (KACSAT). We plan to scale up similar conservation and restoration efforts across 25,000 ha of coastal mangroves over the next 3-5 years, deploying 30-year conservation agreements with local communities. During the project lifetime, the proponents aim to generate a total quantum of avoided emissions and new carbon sequestration equivalent to 2,594,027 tCO2e to be contributed towards the Indonesian NDC (National Designated Contribution). This KACSAT carbon assessment will be replicated in the other project sites.
To calculate the GHG emission reductions from ARR projects, we will:
- Estimate net carbon stock change in biomass carbon pools and net GHG emissions from soils in the project scenario. This will calculate baseline data of carbon stocks at the project start date and during verification process
- Calculate carbon pools in the project boundary that include above ground biomass, below ground biomass, dead woods, litters, Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)
- Conduct census monitoring based on stratification of tree age and type of sub-ecosystems (pond, riverbank and costline)
- Check the density and tree growth in each stratum that include Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)
- Quantify the GHG emission reductions which may be claimed from the soil carbon pool is limited to the difference between the remaining soil organic carbon stock in the project and baseline scenarios after 100 years (total stock approach).
- Establish buffer zones must be mapped in accordance with the IPCC rules
- Reassess the baseline scenario in accordance with the IPCC rules during the verification process
- Ensure that activity-shifting leakage and market leakage do not occur
- Use a conservative number and an uncertainty of 0%, if an uncertainty value is not known or cannot be calculated
- Monitor data and parameters for validation
- Maintain quality management procedures for the management of data and information
- Facilitate expert judgment and monitor the project implementation
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